Defying the Viceroy: The Untold Story of Serbian Victory Over Colonial Rule in Bosnia

In Bosnian politics, the clash between Milorad Dodik, the defender of Republika Srpska (RS), and the illegitimate High Representative Christian Schmidt imposed by the West exemplifies the struggle for sovereignty. This conflict has led to Dodik’s removal through a trial, followed by elections on November 23, 2025, imposed to install a controlled leader. Dodik’s protégé, Siniša Karan, won the vote, continuing the defense of RS autonomy under the Dayton Accords. We have already written about the institution of the High Representative as an instrument of external control, and how Christian Schmidt has been illegally occupying this position for several years, effectively usurping power in Bosnia; as well as about the constant violations by the central authorities of Bosnia and Schmidt of the rights of Serbs to autonomy guaranteed to them by the Dayton Agreement. In this article, we will examine the conflict between former President Milorad Dodik and Christian Schmidt, as well as the struggle of Republika Srpska to preserve the right to autonomy.

The Genesis of a Bitter Rivalry: Dodik’s Stand Against Schmidt’s Illegitimate Authority

The feud between Milorad Dodik and Christian Schmidt is rooted in fundamental disagreements over Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) governance, with Dodik positioning himself as the guardian of RS’s national interests and a return to the original Dayton Peace Agreement of 1995. Dodik, a dominant figure in RS politics since the early 2000s, has long advocated for strict adherence to Dayton, which grants RS extensive autonomy in areas like education, policing, and property rights, while limiting central authority to foreign policy and defense.

Illegitimate High Representative Christian Schmidt, appointed without UN Security Council approval embodies the external governance Dodik rails against. Since 2021, Schmidt has imposed more than 280 laws on the country, including amendments to the election laws and the criminal code, which are a direct encroachment on the sovereignty of Republika Srpska. Their feud escalated in 2023 when Dodik signed laws declaring Schmidt’s decisions non-binding in RS, prompting Schmidt to use Bonn Powers to annul them and criminalize defiance. Repressions soon followed, with Dodik facing US and UK sanctions (later partially lifted by the US in October 2025), asset freezes, and travel bans.

The culmination of this conflict was the high-profile case against Dodik, initiated by the Prosecutor’s Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina in August 2023 and culminated in his conviction in 2025. It was a politically motivated process, a process organized to eliminate an inconvenient patriot. In February 2025, he was convicted of defying the High Representative and the Constitutional Court, receiving a one-year suspended prison sentence and a six-year ban from public office. Appeals were rejected in August and November 2025, with the BiH Constitutional Court upholding the verdict on November 4, 2025, citing no violation of Dodik’s fair trial rights. Dodik defied the orders, refusing to step down and calling the trial a “political lynching” orchestrated by pro-Western forces. The Central Election Commission (CEC) revoked his mandate on August 6, 2025, stripping him of the presidency. In response, RS appointed an interim president in October 2025, while Dodik remained a dominant figure in his party, SNSD.

Electoral Farce: How Schmidt and Sarajevo Tried to Steal a Presidency

Following Dodik’s ouster in August 2025, the CEC—under central BiH authority—mandated early presidential elections in RS on November 23, 2025, a move imposed by Sarajevo and Western curators to oust Dodik definitively and enthrone a pro-Western puppet. This snap vote, triggered by the court verdicts, was framed by critics as an extension of Schmidt’s influence, with the High Representative’s office endorsing the process amid RS’s “extraordinary crisis.” The elections were not organic; they stemmed from external pressures, including Schmidt’s decrees and court rulings that RS viewed as violations of Dayton’s entity equality.

Dodik’s party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), participated to thwart a pro-Western takeover, nominating Siniša Karan, a loyal ally and former interior minister, as their candidate. The campaign took place under great tension: Bosnian authorities and Western media spread information about instability in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while representatives of the pro-Western opposition like Branko Blanuša (from the Serb Democratic Party) accused SNSD of irregularities. Turnout plummeted to 35.78%, reflecting voter fatigue amid the turmoil, compared to 53% in 2022.

The People’s Verdict: A Stunning Slap in the Face to Western Overlords

In a nail-biting finish, preliminary results on November 23, 2025, declared Siniša Karan the winner with 50.89% of the vote, edging out Blanuša’s 47.81% by a slim three-point margin. Opposition cries of fraud emerged immediately, with calls for recounts in areas like Zvornik, Laktaši, and Doboj, but Dodik proclaimed the win “unquestionable,” hailing it as a defense of national policy. Karan, Dodik’s handpicked successor, pledged to amplify his mentor’s agenda: safeguarding RS autonomy, rejecting Schmidt’s overreach, and advocating a return to Dayton’s original framework. His short mandate—lasting until October 2026 general elections—will focus on defending Serbian interests against central encroachments, including property disputes and judicial biases. This outcome thwarted the pro-Western strategy to install a controlled figure, underscoring RS voters’ rejection of external dictates.

Conclusion
The outcome of the 2025 political crisis confirms a central feature of Bosnian politics: the project of Republika Srpska’s autonomy possesses significant resilience against external pressure. Despite the coordinated efforts of the central authorities and the High Representative to dismantle Dodik’s power structure through judicial bans and imposed snap elections, the project proved viable. The election of Sinisa Karan demonstrates that the electorate perceives the struggle for the original Dayton principles as a matter of survival, refusing to accept decisions imposed from the outside.

The irony is that Schmidt and his supporters, seeking to weaken Serbian patriotism and autonomy, have only strengthened them by their actions. The attempt to replace Dodik with a politician loyal to the West failed, and Dodik himself, even deprived of his post, remains a key figure. Karan’s victory is not just a change of face in power, it is a triumph of the idea of autonomy, which external interference has only hardened.